Pressures affecting Australia’s climate

Climate (2016, 2011)

Pressures affecting Australia’s climate

Very high impact,High impact,Low impact,Very low impact

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased since the industrial age, causing positive radiative forcing and increasing global temperatures

Australia’s emissions per capita are high relative to other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations; however, emissions decreased between 1990 and 2015

GHG emissions will continue to place pressure on the climate, with changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme events

Year(s):

2016

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Adequate

Confidence (in trend):

Adequate

Comparability (to previous reports):

Comparable

Greenhouse gases

20162011

Climate

Pressures

Approach/Process

Qualitative assessment based on expert opinion.

Data/Information sources

Peer-reviewed literature and publicly available reports referenced in the Pressures section, and the following references:

CSIRO and BoM, 2014

CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) & BoM (Bureau of Meteorology) (2014). State of the climate 2014, CSIRO & BoM, Melbourne.

Reisinger et al., 2014

Reisinger A, Kitching RL, Chiew F, Hughes L, Newton PCD, Schuster SS, Tait A & Whetton P (2014). Australasia. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR & White LL (eds), Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, part B, Regional aspects, contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, & New York, United States, 1371–1438.

Comments

Nil.

Topics

Increases in greenhouse gases

Under policy settings applying before the release of the Australian Government’s Securing a Clean Energy Future plan, Australia’s emissions were projected to grow by 113 MtCO₂-e (19.6%) between 2010 and 2020. This would have brought Australia’s annual emissions (including emissions from land use, land use change and forestry) to 690 MtCO₂-e in 2020, an increase of 23% from 2000 levels. To achieve the nation’s minimum target of a 5% cut on 2000 levels by 2020 will require a reduction of 159 MtCO₂-e (23% compared with the projected 2020 level). The Securing a Clean Energy Future plan aims to achieve this reduction by 2020. To achieve Australia’s 15% conditional target, a 31% reduction would be needed Climate change modelling indicates that average temperatures will rise, the number of dry days will increase, and intense rainfall events will increase in many areas. More frequent bushfires, dust storms and heatwaves and attendant impacts on human health can all be expected

Year(s):

2011

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Limited

Confidence (in trend):

Adequate

Comparability (to previous reports):

Not assessed

Topics

Increases in greenhouse gases

Assessment Summary Key

Grades

Very low impact

Few or no impacts have been observed, and accepted predictions indicate that future effects are likely to be minor

Low impact

Current pressures have been observed to have had a limited impact on some aspects of climate, and there is concern that, based on accepted predictions, these may worsen

High impact

Current pressures are probably already having serious impacts on important aspects of climate and are expected to worsen, with serious implications for a broad range of areas

Very high impact

Current pressures are already having very serious impacts on important aspects of climate (such as temperature, rainfall and extreme events) with very serious flow-on effects in a broad range of areas

Recent Trends

Improving
Stable
Deteriorating
Unclear

Confidence

Adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus
Somewhat adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus
Limited: Limited evidence or limited consensus
Very limited: Limited evidence and limited consensus
Low: Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment

Comparability

Comparable: Grade and trend are comparable to the previous assessment
Somewhat comparable: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the previous assessment
Not comparable: Grade and trend are not comparable to the previous assessment
Not previously assessed

Keywood MD, Emmerson KM, Hibberd MF (2016). Climate: Pressures affecting Australia’s climate. In: Australia state of the environment 2016, Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, Canberra, https://soe.environment.gov.au/assessment-summary-31-pressures-affecting-australias-climate, DOI 10.4226/94/58b65c70bc372

MtCO₂-e = megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents

The assessment summaries in State of the Environment reporting provide snapshots of key information, and focus on identifying areas for continued or more concentrated attention on strengthening environmental systems to cope with pressures in the future. Assessment summaries are provided for state and trend, pressures and management responses in each of the themes. The summary text in the assessment tables should be read in conjunction with the explanatory text in each section of the theme chapters.

The authors have indicated the strength of the evidence for assessments with a ‘level of confidence’. If adequate high-quality data were available or consensus was high, confidence is indicated as high. If there were only limited data or consensus to determine grades, confidence is indicated as low. Where data are insufficient to attempt scores, this is also indicated, and the component remains on the list to remind readers that it is still an important aspect of the Australian environment, and that more information is needed to improve our understanding and capacity to respond to environmental challenges.

Australia State of the Environment Report

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Pressures affecting Australia’s climate