

Pressures affecting Australia’s climate
Pressures affecting Australia’s climate
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased since the industrial age, causing positive radiative forcing and increasing global temperatures
Australia’s emissions per capita are high relative to other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations; however, emissions decreased between 1990 and 2015
GHG emissions will continue to place pressure on the climate, with changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme events
Under policy settings applying before the release of the Australian Government’s Securing a Clean Energy Future plan, Australia’s emissions were projected to grow by 113 MtCO2-e (19.6%) between 2010 and 2020. This would have brought Australia’s annual emissions (including emissions from land use, land use change and forestry) to 690 MtCO2-e in 2020, an increase of 23% from 2000 levels. To achieve the nation’s minimum target of a 5% cut on 2000 levels by 2020 will require a reduction of 159 MtCO2-e (23% compared with the projected 2020 level). The Securing a Clean Energy Future plan aims to achieve this reduction by 2020. To achieve Australia’s 15% conditional target, a 31% reduction would be needed Climate change modelling indicates that average temperatures will rise, the number of dry days will increase, and intense rainfall events will increase in many areas. More frequent bushfires, dust storms and heatwaves and attendant impacts on human health can all be expected
Assessment Summary Key
Grades
Very low impact
Few or no impacts have been observed, and accepted predictions indicate that future effects are likely to be minor
Low impact
Current pressures have been observed to have had a limited impact on some aspects of climate, and there is concern that, based on accepted predictions, these may worsen
High impact
Current pressures are probably already having serious impacts on important aspects of climate and are expected to worsen, with serious implications for a broad range of areas
Very high impact
Current pressures are already having very serious impacts on important aspects of climate (such as temperature, rainfall and extreme events) with very serious flow-on effects in a broad range of areas
Recent Trends
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Improving
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Stable
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Deteriorating
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Unclear
Confidence
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Adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus
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Somewhat adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus
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Limited: Limited evidence or limited consensus
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Very limited: Limited evidence and limited consensus
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Low: Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment
Comparability
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Comparable: Grade and trend are comparable to the previous assessment
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Somewhat comparable: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the previous assessment
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Not comparable: Grade and trend are not comparable to the previous assessment
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Not previously assessed
Comments
Nil.