Climate change pressures affecting the land environment

Land (2016, 2011)

Climate change pressures affecting the land environment

Very high impact,High impact,Low impact,Very low impact

Climate change-induced impacts on native vegetation

Models suggest that substantial modifications to some communities are likely, and beyond our ability to prevent. Recent increases in fire-weather seasons suggest that climate change will also result in increasing incidence of community-changing wildfires

Year(s):

2016

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Somewhat adequate

Confidence (in trend):

Somewhat adequate

Comparability (to previous reports):

Comparable

Climate change-induced impacts on native vegetation

20162011

Land

Pressures

Approach/Process

Assessment grades and trends were determined by the authors through a qualitative assessment of data and information from publicly available or published reports and scientific papers (those referenced in the text) and information obtained from jurisdictional State of Environment reporting and/or information supplied directly from the jurisdictions.

Data/Information sources

References cited in text.

Modelled projections of future distributions of vegetation types based on work carried out under the AdaptNRM national initiative www.adaptnrm.csiro.au

Comments

These are new analytical approaches based on Australia’s National Vegetation Information System (NVIS) and is not directly comparable with similar figures presented in SoE 2011.

There is a significant body of work developed by government, industry and academia trying to build understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (https://www.nccarf.edu.au/) provides a good starting point to engage with this developing literature.

Topics

Climate change–induced pressures

Some native vegetation communities will no longer exist, the extent and distribution of others will change, and novel ecosystems will arise

Year(s):

2011

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Limited

Confidence (in trend):

Limited

Comparability (to previous reports):

Not assessed

Topics

Climate change–induced pressures

Climate change-induced impacts on diseases, pests and weeds

Some currently significant diseases, pests and weeds are likely to become less of a threat, but a huge pool of ‘sleeper weeds' (plants that may appear benign for many years but suddenly spread rapidly following a triggering event such as fire or flooding) and naturalised animals and diseases are likely to pose an increased risk

Year(s):

2016

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Somewhat adequate

Confidence (in trend):

Somewhat adequate

Comparability (to previous reports):

Comparable

Climate change-induced impacts on diseases, pests and weeds

20162011

Land

Pressures

Approach/Process

Data/Information sources

References cited in text.

Comments

Topics

Climate change–induced pressures

Climate change will alter the occurrence and distribution of diseases, pests and weeds, and their impacts on vegetation communities. Specific impacts remain largely speculative

Year(s):

2011

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Limited

Confidence (in trend):

Limited

Comparability (to previous reports):

Not assessed

Topics

Climate change–induced pressures

Climate change-induced impacts on agricultural and forestry production systems

Increased climate variability is likely to have the greatest impacts, particularly through drought. Some cropping regions will have to move

Year(s):

2016

Stable

Confidence (in grade):

Somewhat adequate

Confidence (in trend):

Somewhat adequate

Comparability (to previous reports):

Not comparable

Climate change-induced impacts on agricultural and forestry production systems

20162011

Land

Pressures

Approach/Process

Data/Information sources

References cited in text.

The impact of climate change on agriculture and other resources is one of the six social, economic and environmental megatrends that will have a major impact on Australia over the next 20 years (http://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Our-Future-World )

Additional options are discussed by Beyond Zero Emissions (www.bze.org.au ), an Australian research and education centre and climate think tank supported by a large national network of scientists, engineers and economists.

Comments

This assessment is based on recent publications and expert opinion, and does not reflect the assessment approach taken in SoE 2011.

Topics

Climate change–induced pressures

Both favourable and adverse impacts on agricultural and forestry production systems are expected, but the latter are expected to outweigh the former

Year(s):

2011

Deteriorating

Confidence (in grade):

Limited

Confidence (in trend):

Limited

Comparability (to previous reports):

Not assessed

Topics

Climate change–induced pressures

Assessment Summary Key

Grades

Very low impact

There are few or negligible impacts on land environmental values

Low impact

Expected impacts are not widespread and may affect only a small number of land environmental values

High impact

Expected impacts are widespread and may irreversibly affect land environmental values

Very high impact

Expected impacts are widespread and will irreversibly affect land environmental values

Recent Trends

Improving
Stable
Deteriorating
Unclear

Confidence

Adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus
Somewhat adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus
Limited: Limited evidence or limited consensus
Very limited: Limited evidence and limited consensus
Low: Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment

Comparability

Comparable: Grade and trend are comparable to the previous assessment
Somewhat comparable: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the previous assessment
Not comparable: Grade and trend are not comparable to the previous assessment
Not previously assessed

Metcalfe D, Bui E (2016). Land: Climate change pressures affecting the land environment. In: Australia state of the environment 2016, Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, Canberra, https://soe.environment.gov.au/assessment-summary-55-continental-scale-pressures-affecting-land-environment, DOI 10.4226/94/58b6585f94911

The assessment summaries in State of the Environment reporting provide snapshots of key information, and focus on identifying areas for continued or more concentrated attention on strengthening environmental systems to cope with pressures in the future. Assessment summaries are provided for state and trend, pressures and management responses in each of the themes. The summary text in the assessment tables should be read in conjunction with the explanatory text in each section of the theme chapters.

The authors have indicated the strength of the evidence for assessments with a ‘level of confidence’. If adequate high-quality data were available or consensus was high, confidence is indicated as high. If there were only limited data or consensus to determine grades, confidence is indicated as low. Where data are insufficient to attempt scores, this is also indicated, and the component remains on the list to remind readers that it is still an important aspect of the Australian environment, and that more information is needed to improve our understanding and capacity to respond to environmental challenges.

Climate change pressures affecting the land environment