Climate change pressures affecting the land environment

Component
Summary
Grade
Very high impact High impact Low impact Very low impact
Confidence
In Grade In Trend
Comparability
To previous years

Models suggest that substantial modifications to some communities are likely, and beyond our ability to prevent. Recent increases in fire-weather seasons suggest that climate change will also result in increasing incidence of community-changing wildfires

Year(s): 
2016
2
Deteriorating
Confidence (in grade): 
Somewhat adequate
Confidence (in trend): 
Somewhat adequate
Comparability (to previous reports): 
Comparable

Some native vegetation communities will no longer exist, the extent and distribution of others will change, and novel ecosystems will arise

Year(s): 
2011
1
Deteriorating
Confidence (in grade): 
Limited
Confidence (in trend): 
Limited
Comparability (to previous reports): 
Not assessed

Some currently significant diseases, pests and weeds are likely to become less of a threat, but a huge pool of ‘sleeper weeds' (plants that may appear benign for many years but suddenly spread rapidly following a triggering event such as fire or flooding) and naturalised animals and diseases are likely to pose an increased risk

 

Year(s): 
2016
2
Deteriorating
Confidence (in grade): 
Somewhat adequate
Confidence (in trend): 
Somewhat adequate
Comparability (to previous reports): 
Comparable

Climate change will alter the occurrence and distribution of diseases, pests and weeds, and their impacts on vegetation communities. Specific impacts remain largely speculative

Year(s): 
2011
2
Deteriorating
Confidence (in grade): 
Limited
Confidence (in trend): 
Limited
Comparability (to previous reports): 
Not assessed

Increased climate variability is likely to have the greatest impacts, particularly through drought. Some cropping regions will have to move

Year(s): 
2016
2
Stable
Confidence (in grade): 
Somewhat adequate
Confidence (in trend): 
Somewhat adequate
Comparability (to previous reports): 
Not comparable

Both favourable and adverse impacts on agricultural and forestry production systems are expected, but the latter are expected to outweigh the former

Year(s): 
2011
2
Deteriorating
Confidence (in grade): 
Limited
Confidence (in trend): 
Limited
Comparability (to previous reports): 
Not assessed
Metcalfe D, Bui E (2016). Land: Climate change pressures affecting the land environment. In: Australia state of the environment 2016, Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, Canberra, https://soe.environment.gov.au/assessment-summary-55-continental-scale-pressures-affecting-land-environment, DOI 10.4226/94/58b6585f94911