

Climate change pressures affecting the land environment
Climate change pressures affecting the land environment
Models suggest that substantial modifications to some communities are likely, and beyond our ability to prevent. Recent increases in fire-weather seasons suggest that climate change will also result in increasing incidence of community-changing wildfires
Some native vegetation communities will no longer exist, the extent and distribution of others will change, and novel ecosystems will arise
Some currently significant diseases, pests and weeds are likely to become less of a threat, but a huge pool of ‘sleeper weeds' (plants that may appear benign for many years but suddenly spread rapidly following a triggering event such as fire or flooding) and naturalised animals and diseases are likely to pose an increased risk
Climate change will alter the occurrence and distribution of diseases, pests and weeds, and their impacts on vegetation communities. Specific impacts remain largely speculative
Increased climate variability is likely to have the greatest impacts, particularly through drought. Some cropping regions will have to move
Both favourable and adverse impacts on agricultural and forestry production systems are expected, but the latter are expected to outweigh the former
Assessment Summary Key
Grades
Very low impact
There are few or negligible impacts on land environmental values
Low impact
Expected impacts are not widespread and may affect only a small number of land environmental values
High impact
Expected impacts are widespread and may irreversibly affect land environmental values
Very high impact
Expected impacts are widespread and will irreversibly affect land environmental values
Recent Trends
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Improving
-
Stable
-
Deteriorating
-
Unclear
Confidence
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Adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus
-
Somewhat adequate: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus
-
Limited: Limited evidence or limited consensus
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Very limited: Limited evidence and limited consensus
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Low: Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment
Comparability
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Comparable: Grade and trend are comparable to the previous assessment
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Somewhat comparable: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the previous assessment
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Not comparable: Grade and trend are not comparable to the previous assessment
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Not previously assessed
Comments
These are new analytical approaches based on Australia’s National Vegetation Information System (NVIS) and is not directly comparable with similar figures presented in SoE 2011.
There is a significant body of work developed by government, industry and academia trying to build understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (https://www.nccarf.edu.au/) provides a good starting point to engage with this developing literature.