Outlook
Outlook
The likely future state of the environment, long-term outlook and future challenges.
Overview for Outlook
In general, the outlook for Australia’s environment depends on our ability to effectively address the complex mix of drivers, pressures and risks discussed in this report. This mix can be addressed through:
- leadership
- effective engagement of the community and private sector
- continued improvements in data and understanding
- further development and use of adaptive management tools and approaches
- decoupling of the economy from environmental harm
- mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change.
In this section, we discuss the outlook for Australia’s environment under a no-change scenario—that is, assuming that current trends continue, residual risks are not resolved, and there are no significant changes to management and governance arrangements.
We examine some tools, mechanisms and resources that are starting to be used to address the drivers, pressures and risks affecting our environment, and to improve management and governance arrangements so that they more effectively support sustainable development. We then explore what our environment could look like under an improved future scenario.
At a glance
The outlook for Australia’s urban air quality is generally good. However, there is strong evidence that periods of poor urban air quality can have serious adverse long-term and short-term impacts on human health (particularly on the health of susceptible individuals). Although levels of carbon monoxide, lead, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide have decreased in the past 10 years, ozone and particle levels have not declined, and ongoing effort will be required to secure past gains and achieve further improvements. Prospects for achieving reductions in levels of ozone and particles will be influenced by several factors, most notably vehicle technology, the extent of ongoing population growth and urban sprawl, the availability of reliable public transport, and the impact of climate change on urban airsheds.
At a glance
The outlook for the built environment continues to be mixed. The major drivers of population growth and climate change pose significant challenges in relation to housing location and infrastructure, although this report suggests that per-capita reductions and improved efficiencies are beginning to occur in some areas. Between 2011 and 2031, almost three-quarters of Australia’s population growth will occur in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Projections show that our biggest 4 cities will collectively need to accommodate 5.9 million more people. Increasing urban land use at our cities’ fringes remains an area of concern, as does traffic congestion in our big cities, despite growth in public transport. Increased densification and urban infill need to be carefully planned and managed to maintain adequate green space and green infrastructure as city populations increase.
On the positive side, energy and water efficiency for sections of the built environment have continued to improve during recent years, resulting in little or no overall increase in consumption in these resources associated with the built environment, despite increasing population growth. There have also been reductions in per-person car use, as well as reductions in waste to landfill.
However, there is a lack of coordination and integration of planning across and between levels of government, as well as between the various cross-cutting themes that are relevant to management of the built environment. This adds to the challenges faced by our built environments. Recently, the Australian Infrastructure Audit reported that ‘major reforms are needed to improve the way we plan, finance, construct, maintain and operate infrastructure’.
Encouragingly, the Australian Government has established a portfolio for Cities and Digital Transformation in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and has established a Cities Agenda that will focus on improved access to quality local jobs, housing affordability, and the sustainability and amenity of our cities.
At a glance
The outlook for Australia’s climate depends on the effectiveness of international and national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Without mitigation, surface temperature increases of 3.7–4.8 °C above 1850–1900 temperatures are projected. To remain below 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, a reduction in global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of 40–70 per cent by 2050 compared with 2010, and near zero emissions or below in 2100 are required. Serious mitigation strategies are required to achieve this.
Mitigation efforts will minimise the extent of future climate change and prevent catastrophic climate change tipping points, but will not return the climate system to its pre-industrial state. Despite international and domestic mitigation efforts, temperatures will remain high for many centuries, even after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, adaptation will be an important component of the way society handles climate change.
At a glance
If our heritage includes those places that we have ‘inherited’ and want to pass on to future generations, then the notion of ‘outlook’ is an essential element of heritage. The outlook for Australia’s heritage will depend on the manner in which the Australian Heritage Strategy is embraced, resourced and implemented, not only by the Australian Government, but particularly by the other partners on which the success of the strategy relies.
The Australian Heritage Strategy, which was launched in December 2015, establishes a new outlook for heritage conservation and management in Australia. Responding to many of the issues raised in Australia: state of the environment 2011, the strategy positions the Australian Government to lead major change and foster innovative approaches in partnership with the states, territories, private owners and community groups.
Since 2011, several factors have significantly influenced the context for Australia’s heritage. There has been a growing understanding and acceptance that climate change poses a major threat to both natural and cultural heritage places. Indigenous involvement in land and sea management has expanded, although the fragmented jurisdictional approach to Indigenous heritage remains. There have been some significant investments through the National Environmental Research Program (and subsequent National Environmental Science Programme), Protecting National Historic Sites, Your Community Heritage, Community Heritage and Icons, and other Australian Government and state and territory programs. However, overall, the public-sector resources allocated for heritage management have remained steady or declined. Limited resources have been available to assess the state and condition of Australia’s heritage through the state of the environment process. The Australian Heritage Strategy acknowledges the importance of additional funding sources, and offers some truly innovative approaches, such as a promise to explore a heritage lottery.
The systems used to manage Australian heritage continue to be cumbersome: land reserves, inventories and statutes. These structures do not yet adequately identify, protect, manage, resource or celebrate the integrated nature of our nation’s cultural landscape. Our heritage remains at risk from the impacts of climate change, the threats arising from development and the resource implications of population growth.
The National Reserve System continues to improve, particularly through the addition of substantial Indigenous Protected Areas, but it is not yet comprehensive, nor adequately representative. Declining funding for parks agencies, relative to the increasing extent of the National Reserve System, increases the risk of less effective management in the future. Statutory listing of natural heritage places and reservation of an appropriate set of landholdings are hampered by factors such as conflicting perceptions of value. Climate change poses major risks to natural heritage, which also continues to be threatened by inappropriate land use, development pressures, wildfires, loss of habitat and invasive species. The ultimate impact of these pressures will depend on the ability of scientists and managers to work together, and on commitment to well-resourced, proactive management rather than belated reaction to crises. Adverse effects can be minimised through thorough understanding of natural heritage resources, recognition of the benefits of public–private partnerships and a whole-of-landscape approach, which fosters ecological connectivity.
Australia’s Indigenous heritage remains inadequately documented and protected, and incremental destruction continues. The continued inclusion of additional Indigenous heritage places within protected reserved lands is therefore particularly important, as is increasing involvement of Indigenous people in sustainable land and sea management. Although declining Indigenous language is a cause for concern (insofar as language is an indicator of traditional culture), there are noteworthy improvements in knowledge and practices, which support Indigenous cultural traditions and connections to Country.
Many Australian historic heritage places remain in good condition. However, despite some focus on improving the calibre of statutory lists and registers, they remain inconsistent and incomplete. Historic heritage conservation could be better supported by planning and assessment systems, and continues to be threatened by development, often because heritage is identified during impact assessment processes, rather than proactively. There has been little progress in providing improved incentives for private owners of heritage places.
The Australian Heritage Strategy strongly emphasises the need for effective communication and commitment to best practice, through partnership with professional and community groups, such as Australia ICOMOS, the Australian Committee for IUCN, and the National Trust of Australia.
There is strong national leadership expressed in the Australian Heritage Strategy, but the commitments to implement that strategy are not yet commensurate with the asserted value of Australian heritage that ‘underpins our sense of place and national identity, and makes a positive contribution to the nation’s wellbeing’ (Australian Government 2015a:7).
At a glance
It seems unlikely, given the current overall poor status and deteriorating trends in biodiversity and the high impact of increasing pressures, that overall biodiversity outcomes will improve in the short or medium term. Our current investments in biodiversity management are not keeping pace with the scale and magnitude of current pressures, and we are increasingly needing to adapt to a potential reduction or shift in the ecosystem services we rely on. It is anticipated that novel ecosystems with a mixture of native and exotic species will increase as the distribution and abundance of invasive species continue mostly unabated. Biodiversity and broader conservation management will require major reinvestments across long timeframes to reverse deteriorating trends.
The Australian national outlook 2015 has indicated that it is possible to achieve a balance of sustainable environments, and economic and human population growth, but significant changes in policy, and implementation of new technology and tools will be required. For example, it is evident that market-based instruments for sustainable land management and protection of biodiversity will be increasingly important.
The co-development and application of effective research and management models with Indigenous people is key to improving management of areas that are vital for the ongoing maintenance of important elements of Australia’s biodiversity. Such approaches have huge potential to improve our ability to respond to both existing and possible new impacts through participatory monitoring and impact assessment methods, leading to new ways of managing biodiversity that enable sustainable development across a wide range of tenures.
At a glance
The outlook for Australia’s land environment is shaped by the legacy of our former activities, the current and future pressures on the land environment, and how we respond to these pressures.
The many consequences of climate change provide the greatest challenges. The challenges include understanding how to facilitate resilience in already depleted natural communities; ensuring food and energy security; and managing conflicts for the use of land, and trade-offs between different sectors of the economy and different human communities, in a context of change in many other areas, as discussed in other themes.
Other challenges include the threats posed by invasive species; maintaining agricultural productivity as well as environmental sustainability; and balancing the demands of a growing, and increasing urban, population with the economic necessity of a viable resources sector.
The development of more national, rather than regional or local, perspectives and strategies is an important step in ensuring that decisions are taken at an appropriate scale, while recognising the critical need for local and regional information and perspectives to underpin national decisions. It is hard to see that decisions are currently being made at an appropriate temporal scale.
At a glance
Climate and pests remain the largest pressures on our inland water environments. Climate variability and climate change, and associated changes in rainfall regimes, are the primary risks to inland water environments in both the short and long term. Efforts will need to continue to monitor and manage aquatic pests and weeds. As agricultural development spreads and becomes more intensive across northern Australia, the weed and pest outlook will become more uncertain, with more opportunities arising for new pests to establish and flourish.
In addition, the scientific investigation and management controls associated with exploitation of coal-seam gas and large coalmining developments both potentially benefit and threaten the future health of inland waters. In this regard, the Bioregional Assessment Programme offers the most open and accessible data, information and assessment approach in Australian natural resource history.
Australia’s water resources information is becoming increasingly available in many forms, supporting broader understanding and more informed debate on the future of our water resources and aquatic environments. Also, inland waters continue to receive moderate to reasonable attention in national research and policy agendas, assuring a continuing supply of new ideas and knowledge. The outlook for the National Water Initiative is variable, with marketisation of water and environmental water reforms operating well in some areas but having less traction in others. Finally, cultural water, and co-management of groundwater and surface water are areas in which inland water environments will benefit from attention from government at all levels.
At a glance
The current pressures associated with human population, catchment land use, agriculture and resource extraction are growing and will be exacerbated by the increasing pressures of climate change. The most significant climate change pressures for the coast include sea level rise, and increased frequency of cyclones and severe rainfall events. Consequences of climate-related pressures include habitat loss, disruption of ecological processes, potential species extinctions, range expansions and risk of damage to the built environment.
It is critical that Australia prepares for the coming changes as best we can, to mitigate impacts. The success of our management will ultimately determine how pressures and changes will affect the Australian coast.
At a glance
The contribution of the marine environment to the economy is projected to continue to grow 3 times faster than Australia’s gross domestic product in the next decade. It is in Australia’s interest that our ocean ecosystems continue to bring economic, cultural and social benefits that can be sustained into the future.
The outlook for the marine environment is mixed. The trends of many marine environmental resources and, in particular, many listed species, are unclear. Although overall status for habitats, communities or species groups may be good, habitats or communities in specific locations or individual species (e.g. some reef fish species, Australian sea lions) remain in poor condition, and the prospects for improvement are unclear.
Management of some sectors (e.g. commercial fishing) has clearly improved during the past decade, resulting in better oversight of sustainable practices and, in some cases, the recovery of species and habitats. Although specific pressures on habitats, communities or species groups may have been reduced (e.g. commercial fishing on seamounts), the future outlook for many remains unclear as a result of the unpredictable nature, or lack of management, of remaining pressures (e.g. climate change). Without improved management of external pressures that are not currently directly managed, or are not managed effectively (e.g. marine debris), ongoing gradual deterioration of the marine environment is expected to occur. Some sectors (e.g. marine mining, recreational fishing) lack nationally coordinated management, which reduces Australia’s capacity to respond to external pressures and cumulative impacts that are already evident in some areas and seem certain to increase in coming decades. Seabed environments, and associated demersal and benthopelagic species groups across shelf and slope regions are expected to continue to recover in response to reduced fishing pressures. Habitats that are expected to continue to deteriorate in the future include coral reefs, fringing reefs and algal beds, largely in association with increasing pressure associated with climate change. Without coordinated effective management of pressures affecting species groups that demonstrate connectivity with regions external to the Australian exclusive economic zone, ongoing gradual deterioration of these species groups is expected.
Given continuous and ongoing change in the marine environment, and a lack of information on what historical states might have looked like, our ability to compare the current state of ecosystems with some historical ideal becomes ambiguous and somewhat arbitrary, and may not be appropriate. This is particularly true if the historical ideal is inaccurate. The concept of preserving components of marine ecosystems in a condition that was (hopefully) measured at an arbitrary point in time loses meaning, especially when reduction or removal of a single sector’s pressure may be insufficient to return a species or habitat to its prior condition in a reasonable timeframe. Ecosystem restoration and artificial habitats are likely to become increasingly important. However, many restoration efforts will focus on maintaining particular species, or restoring them to particular locations or to an agreed ‘threshold’ level rather than to earlier (unknown) states. Recovery targets for species listed under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 are less clear; although removal from the list would be a clear indication of species recovery, this has yet to happen for any marine species.
The increasing complexity and mixture of local and remote pressures will require increasingly sophisticated information for managers to choose the most cost-effective and enduring interventions that satisfy individual sectors while ameliorating cumulative impacts. Improved, sustained monitoring can provide the indicators against which resources can be managed and management effectiveness can be reviewed. Addressing challenges for the marine environment as we look to the future will require a coordinated, collaborative and dedicated effort involving researchers, government, industry and the Australian community.
Current key gaps that limit our capacity to undertake national assessments of the marine environment include a lack of ongoing consistent monitoring, identification of standardised indicators for monitoring the marine environment, integrated approaches to understanding cumulative impacts and robust risk assessment frameworks for the environment. If addressed, these will substantially improve future state of the environment reporting.
At a glance
Currently, the Antarctic environment is still in a comparatively good condition. However, the pressures on the continent and the surrounding ocean will increase. For example, the extraction of marine resources is not only going to continue but will intensify in the future. Most importantly, numerous climate change processes are now under way that are likely to alter the physical Antarctic environment over the next decades to centuries. In turn, ecosystems and species populations will be affected. Organisms either must adapt or will disappear. The most likely candidates to vanish are those that have adapted to narrow environmental limits, such as emperor penguins, and invertebrates that grow and develop slowly. New fisheries will open as species more adapted to warmer conditions than currently found in the Southern Ocean move south.
Climate change and the future of Antarctica remain topics of intense scientific research and debate, as analyses of data are still hampered by uncertainties and, in some areas, data deficiencies. Climate change is unlikely to be linear, and various regions will be affected on different scales, as the dissimilar developments in East and West Antarctica already demonstrate. Despite all uncertainties, the risks associated with climate change are significant and deserve our full attention.
