State and trends
State and trends
Looks at the current state and the trend in the condition of the environment for each thematic report.
Overview for State and trends
During the past 5 years, environmental policies and management in Australia have had some notable success in improving the state and trends of parts of the Australian environment. Australia’s built environment, natural and cultural heritage, marine environment and Antarctic environment are generally in good condition. On land and in Commonwealth waters, Australia has a comprehensive system of protected areas, although some important gaps remain in adequacy and representativeness. Since SoE 2011, both the National Reserve System, particularly through an increase in Indigenous Protected Areas, and the National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas have increased.
However, the condition of the environment is poor and/or deteriorating in some areas. These include the more populated coastal areas and some of the growth areas within urban environments, where human pressure is greatest (particularly in south-eastern Australia); and the extensive land-use zone of Australia, where grazing is considered a major threat to biodiversity.
The poor state and declining trend of Australia’s biodiversity are an issue of particular concern. For instance, the number of species listed as threatened under the EPBC Act continues to rise. Since 2011, the number of species listed in the critically endangered category has increased by 31, and 2 species have been reported as likely extinct. Overall pressures on biodiversity have mostly increased since 2011, and the status of biodiversity has mostly decreased, but our information base remains inadequate to robustly assess state and trends.
A changing global climate system is not only affecting Australia’s climate, but is also beginning to affect all other aspects of our environment. As described in the following sections, climate is directly affecting, and interacting with, other pressures on the environment.
The condition ratings of the state of the environment that are provided in the following sections are from the SoE thematic reports. For a more detailed assessment and an explanation of assessment ratings, see the relevant report.
At a glance
Since 1998, Australia has had national ambient air quality standards (National Environment Protection Measure for Ambient Air Quality—Air NEPM), which set guideline levels for 7 key air pollutants: carbon monoxide, lead, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter (less than 10 microns in size [PM10] and 2.5 microns in size [PM2.5]) and sulfur dioxide. Monitoring against these standards is undertaken at about 75 locations in metropolitan areas and regional towns across Australia, referred to as ‘compliance sites’.
An assessment of air quality from the worst performing (i.e. poorest air quality) of these compliance sites in each jurisdiction showed that air quality is either ‘good’ or ‘very good’ in Australian urban areas.
Levels of lead and nitrogen dioxide have declined markedly in all centres.
Particulate matter has been identified as a hazard to human health. Levels of PM10 now rarely exceed the 24-hour NEPM designed for the protection of human health. However, these good results do not mean that we can be complacent about air quality in Australia as new challenges emerge. The standard for PM2.5, which has previously been an advisory limit only, is frequently exceeded because of extreme events such as bushfires, smog and dust storms. PM2.5 can be transported further and persist for longer in the atmosphere than PM10. We do not fully understand all the processes that lead to PM2.5 formation; thus, in the future when the PM2.5 limit is mandatory, we will be challenged to adhere to this limit. The good news is that more air quality management stations will begin measuring PM2.5 as part of their routine reporting obligations.
Levels of ozone have remained stable since the 2011 state of the environment report.
At a glance
Australian cities are generally characterised as low density, with a high proportion of detached homes, and with good amenity in terms of access to commercial and community services, and green space. Although considered generally good, the delivery of amenity in growth areas in Australia is recognised as a major challenge. Air and water quality are generally good.
Per-household energy use continues to decline, and aspects of water use related to the built environment (mainly industry) have become more efficient during recent years.
However, significant parts of Australia’s built environment have aspects that are considered poor. The Australian built environment consumes significant natural resources, including land, water and energy, and there is substantial waste generation, although recycling is increasingly a feature of our urban environments.
The fringes of Australia’s larger urban centres continue to be developed at low residential densities, central and inner cities have increased densities, and the middle suburbs have not experienced significant changes in densities. The average floor area of new dwellings has decreased since it peaked in 2008–09.
In the largest cities, traffic congestion remains a concern and will have a growing impact on travel times, although public transport use continues to increase in most major cities, and per-person car use is in decline. In the smaller capital cities and other urban centres with populations of more than 100,000, traffic concerns are far less significant, and the quality of the natural environment is higher. For smaller settlements, aspects of livability such as quality of housing and water can be poor.
At a glance
Australian temperatures have increased during the past 100 years, especially since the 1950s. This increase has also been observed at the global level, and is associated with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The year 2015 was the warmest on record for the globe. The shift towards higher temperatures has been associated with regional increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heatwaves. The past few years have seen a number of these extreme heat events across Australia, with the record hot summer of 2012–13 having the warmest month, week and day on record. The year 2013 was Australia’s warmest year on record. Spring 2014 was Australia’s warmest spring on record, followed by spring 2015 and spring 2013.
Australian rainfall has been highly variable during the past 100 years, particularly in the past 40 years. The millennium drought began in 2000, and ended in 2010 with Australia’s 2-year period on record, which were associated with strong La Niña events in the tropical Pacific (La Niña events tend to result in above average rainfall for much of Australia). After that, drought re-emerged across large areas of southern and eastern Australia, including Queensland. Long-term rainfall deficiencies across Victoria, Tasmania, south-eastern South Australia and south-western Western Australia are overlaid on a long-term trend of declining rainfall in autumn and winter (the southern wet season) in parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia. The strong El Niño event of 2015–16 further reinforced these dry conditions across large parts of eastern Australia.
At a glance
Australia’s heritage registers list natural and cultural places at national, state and local levels, but in an inconsistent manner, and with disparate levels of resourcing and regulation. As announced during the 2014 International Union for Conservation of Nature World Parks Congress, more than 17 per cent of Australian land is now within conservation reserves and Indigenous Protected Areas (IPAs), meeting one element of the threshold nominated in the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The number of IPAs, in particular, has increased during the past 5 years, although not all IPAs have the same protected status, and the allowable uses and the statutory controls for some may not ensure protection of natural and cultural heritage values. Australia has one of the largest marine reserve networks in the world—more than 36 per cent of Australian waters are protected, exceeding the CBD Aichi Biodiversity Target 11, which is to include at least 10 per cent of marine waters in marine protected areas. However, such summary targets do not reflect the fine grain of significant ecosystems and habitats. Thirty-two of Australia’s 89 terrestrial bioregions have less than 10 per cent of their area within reserved land. A greater percentage than the Aichi target is needed, comprising both protected and privately held lands, selected and managed to retain large-scale landscapes and promote ecosystem connectivity.
The role of Indigenous people in managing Indigenous heritage has expanded, as has recognition of the importance of intangible Indigenous heritage. Landscape-based approaches to assessing and managing Indigenous heritage are more prevalent, but individual assessment and development decisions continue to cause incremental destruction. Indigenous cultural practices can also be adversely affected by other environmental factors, such as land degradation and weed infestation.
Australia’s reserved lands and marine reserves continue to face threats from invasive species, fire, erosion, use and impacts on threatened species. In addition, resources allocated for conservation of reserved lands have decreased relative to their extent. (Available information on reserved lands has been gathered from diverse sources and may not be truly representative.)
Attention has been focused on the integrity and representativeness of historic heritage registers. Nationally consistent information is not available about the condition of listed heritage places, but processes have been instigated to facilitate improved monitoring of the state of listed places. There have been no systematic national assessments to determine whether historic heritage places, apart from those on the National Heritage List, remain in good condition and retain their identified values. Historic heritage places that are vacant, not in use or in poor condition remain under threat.
At a glance
Understanding of the state and trends of the vast majority of individual species in Australia is limited. The lack of effective monitoring data for understanding state and trends, even for threatened species, is highlighted by every jurisdiction and all previous state of the environment reports. Information about the extent of vegetation communities is good; however, most jurisdictions note that knowledge about vegetation condition is limited. Significant reports on the state of mammals (The action plan for Australian mammals) and birds (State of Australian birds) have improved understanding of these animal groups since 2011.
At the end of 2015, 74 ecological communities were listed as threatened under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act); 31 are critically endangered. There have been 30 new listings since 2011. Threatened ecological communities are concentrated in south eastern Australia. The overall number of threatened species listed under the EPBC Act has increased by 44, to 1808 species.
Based on the information available about vegetation extent and condition, and the small number of species for which there is some understanding of trends in distribution and abundance, the status of biodiversity in Australia is generally considered poor and worsening.
Mammal declines in northern Australia have continued. In southern and eastern Australia, the number of species of conservation concern has increased. Bird groups show variable trends, but some groups, such as woodland-dependent species in the mallee and carnivore species in the arid zone, are in significant decline. Trend analyses for abundance of eastern Australian inland waterbirds and for some migratory shorebirds indicate that populations are currently well below long-term averages.
Very limited information is available to assess the state and trends of reptiles, amphibians and invertebrates, except for a few high-profile species.
The jurisdictions generally report the condition of aquatic ecosystems and species as poor to moderate, although the availability of information is also often described as poor or limited.
At a glance
The area of land managed for conservation has continued to expand, in both private and public sectors. This is partly due to a decrease in the area of native forest managed for production of timber and wood products. The area formally owned and managed by Indigenous Australians has also continued to increase, although the majority of such areas are in very remote parts of the continent.
There is increasing investment in use of land and native vegetation for carbon sequestration, carbon emissions avoidance or emissions reductions through appropriate management. In some cases, management for carbon outcomes may be at odds with management for biodiversity outcomes.
Land management practices are improving, particularly in relation to soil management, and reduction of nutrient and pesticide run-off. Some of this is attributable to improved integrated pest management programs, which reduce the required application of pesticides.
Current rates of soil erosion by water across much of Australia exceed soil formation rates, although progress has been made in reducing soil erosion through adoption of soil conservation measures.
A new generation of large-scale soil mapping will inform national mapping and monitoring of carbon, biodiversity, agricultural impact and ecosystem functions in general. Increases in dryland salinity appear to have been slowed by the millennium drought, although a return to wetter conditions is likely to increase spread of dryland salinity. Management of soil carbon is central to maintaining soil health and ensuring global food security, as well as providing an important sink for atmospheric carbon; Australia currently has a lower soil organic carbon stock than other parts of the world. Soil acidification is another challenge facing agriculture, with annual lime application currently lower than required to combat the problem in some jurisdictions.
Impacts of human land use are spread unevenly across the country. Nearly 90 per cent of Australia’s native vegetation remains in some form. Vegetation clearing is concentrated in the long-settled agricultural and coastal zones, where more than 50 per cent of native vegetation has typically been cleared. Vegetation condition usually declines along with extent, because increased fragmentation increases the impacts of invasive species and bushfires, and decreases ecosystem functions such as pollination and seed dispersal.
At a glance
Online availability of flow data and water resources information has increased substantially since 2011, including:
- various state-based data portals
- a national repository with flow and other data for more than 3400 sites
- a national set of 222 long-term, high-quality reference flow gauging stations
- monthly updates of rainfall patterns and streamflow status
- regional information on the state and trends of streamflow, groundwater and major water balance components.
Surface and groundwater conditions have varied considerably since 2011, largely in response to climate. National water storage levels varied from above 80 per cent to below 50 per cent during the period. State-level variations in storage have ranged from above 75 per cent to below 45 per cent for New South Wales and Tasmania, whereas South Australia’s water storage has remained constant at between 80 and 100 per cent, supported by water from the Murray River. Following dry conditions in the northern and southern extremities of the Murray–Darling Basin since 2012, Basin rainfall during the 18 months leading up to 2016 was largely in the median range. Basin streamflows in early 2016 were mostly around average in southern and central areas, with a mix of above average and below average flows in the north. The South West Coast was one of the few wetter-than-normal areas of Australia leading into 2016, with 55 mm of total rainfall in January 2016; this was 224 per cent higher than the 1980–2015 average. Conversely, total rainfall across the Carpentaria Coast division was 98 mm, 52 per cent lower than the 35-year average.
This 2016 report includes a new assessment of the state of groundwater, based on national aggregated information. Groundwater condition is mostly graded as poor across Australia’s drainage divisions, reflecting historical groundwater use, significant numbers of bores and low knowledge of the impacts on groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Trends were mostly assessed as deteriorating or stable.
Unlike the extensive site-based assessment of the SoE 2011 report, water quality assessment for 2016 was based on a range of sources at the state, region or river scale. At a regional level, Lake Eyre Basin water quality monitoring, for example, revealed results generally consistent with previous reporting, the period sampled and the hydrological conditions. Some improving trends were noted for the Murray–Darling Basin, but no assessment was possible for more remote areas, including the South Western Plateau, North Western Plateau and Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage divisions.
Finally, the state and trends of ecological processes and key species populations ranged from very poor, with deteriorating trends across the Murray–Darling, to poor to good condition, with stable trends for south-eastern and south-western regions, to good for much of the rest of the country.
At a glance
The state and trends of the living (biotic) and nonliving (abiotic) environment in the coastal zone are the result of both historical and contemporary pressures, and our attempts to ameliorate these pressures. The state of most coastal biological components is in decline, particularly habitats and species that overlap with coastal land use. Much of Australia’s native coastal vegetation has been lost to clearing, soil quality has diminished, and island flora and fauna suffer from invasive species. The dynamic land–water interface of sizeable stretches of coastline has been altered from a natural state by development, resource extraction, invasive species and recreational use. Several estuaries and bays around the nation are centres of urban, industrial and agricultural activity, and the pressures from such intense development often reduce water quality, and change the fish and invertebrate communities that use these critical coastal features.
The distribution of threatened species around the nation is generally related to the distribution of the human population and the intensity of our activities. The species group of most concern is migratory shorebirds, which are declining because of habitat loss and impacts on critical parts of their migratory route in Australia and overseas. This is occurring despite protection in Australia, and looks to continue unless multilateral management can be achieved. Saltmarshes are also in a poor state. Their extent around urban centres is a fraction of their pre-European settlement state, and they are now subject to further clearing and drainage, and the encroachment of mangroves. Saltwater crocodiles are doing well because they are protected from harvesting, and their predominantly northern distribution spares them from the bulk of pressures associated with coastal development. Vital ecological processes are in a poor state nationally as a result of multiple pressures on coastal ecosystems.
Coastal heritage requires greater documentation, particularly in relation to Indigenous heritage, which is currently under-represented. There have been recent advances in this field, including recognition in the Great Barrier Reef outlook report 2014, and incorporation of threat and risk assessment into the Marine Estate Management Act 2014 of New South Wales, but further progress is needed.
At a glance
Reporting on the current state and recent trends of the biological and ecological components of Australia’s marine environment is highly variable across Australia’s marine estate, and is often inadequate for robust assessment. There are few coordinated, sustained monitoring programs at the national level for the marine environment, and most monitoring is restricted to fisheries assessments and short-term programs in localised regions. Reporting also varies in terms of spatial and temporal coverage, parameters measured, methods used and key indicators. This results in varying certainty in the state and trends reported for the state of the environment (SoE) assessment.
Generally, habitats and communities in the Temperate East and the South-east marine regions have been subject to higher historical impacts, such as bottom-trawling impacts on shelf and slope communities, than those in other regions. The condition of habitats and communities in the Great Barrier Reef to the end of 2015 is considered to range from poor and deteriorating (corals) to good and stable (macroalgae, offshore banks and shoals). Large canopy-forming seaweeds are still prevalent in many locations around Australia, but increased water temperatures and range extension by the sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii in south-eastern Australia have led to the loss and overgrazing of kelp beds in temperate rocky reefs, resulting in a poor and deteriorating state and trend for this habitat. Giant kelp forests of south-eastern Australia were the first marine community to be listed as a threatened ecological community under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 in 2012.
Most species groups assessed are regarded to be in good condition overall, although information is lacking to assess the condition or trend of many species and species groups because they are not regularly monitored, if at all. Trends are stable or improving for most fish species, except inner shelf reef species, which are highly spatially variable—some are in good condition and stable, whereas others are in poor condition and deteriorating. Shelf demersal and benthopelagic fish species, while in poor condition, are considered as generally improving, with a few exceptions. Some species have improved from past declines (e.g. long-nosed fur seals, southern Great Barrier Reef green turtles, humpback whales, the eastern stock of orange roughy), and others are currently stable (e.g. mesopelagic and epipelagic fish species, shy albatross). Some species have declined because of cumulative impacts associated with high mortality from bycatch within fisheries, impacts associated with coastal nesting/breeding sites and climate change (e.g. flesh-footed shearwater, Australian sea lion, north Queensland hawksbill turtle, some demersal shark species).
Overall, the state of components of the marine environment identified in SoE 2011 as providing biophysical and ecological indicators of marine health shows the marine environment to be in good condition in 2016, although several indicators are highly spatially and temporally variable, and determining trends is difficult. Overall, on a national scale, water column turbidity in open-water environments has decreased; this is largely the result of improved wastewater treatment, reduced nutrient inputs, and improved management of agricultural practices and associated run-off. Observed reductions in primary and secondary productivity are considered to be associated with reduced nutrient supply because of ocean warming. Changes to ocean currents have affected connectivity within marine ecosystems, as observed through shifts in species distributions, especially in south-eastern Australia. There has been trophic (food chain) restructuring of some ecosystems as a result of commercial and recreational fishing, pollution, introduction of foreign species, and habitat modification. Some of these impacts are irreversible, but the effects are generally unknown. Introduced species, blooms and infestations of jellyfish and algae, diseases, and animal kills appear to be stable, whereas trends in crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks are unclear.
At a glance
The physical and chemical components of the Antarctic environment are changing. The Antarctic surface and lower atmosphere are warming, with the strongest temperature increases in the Antarctic Peninsula region and West Antarctica. Part of the warming is because of global temperature increases that are accompanying the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Antarctic temperature changes are also being influenced by shifts in atmospheric circulation as a result of stratosphere cooling through ozone depletion and increasing levels of carbon dioxide, and variability in the heat content of the oceans. Most notably, there is strong evidence that stratospheric ozone depletion associated with the Antarctic ozone hole has mitigated the warming of much of Antarctica during the summers of the past 2–3 decades. There is increasing evidence that the ozone layer is starting to recover as a direct consequence of international controls on the use of human-made ozone-depleting substances.
The complex Antarctic food web is based on vast numbers of marine microorganisms, including bacteria, phytoplankton and zooplankton. Changes to the marine environment, including ocean acidification, will have a significant impact on these organisms. Since these organisms are at the base of the food web, such changes will have profound effects throughout the Antarctic ecosystems.
Few data are available about the status of Antarctic vertebrates, which encompass a variety of flying seabirds and penguins, several seals and whales, and numerous fish. The distribution and abundance of humpback whales are probably the best known of any whale species. Recent surveys indicate that some stocks are increasing to a point that their delisting as a threatened species under Australian legislation has been proposed. There is some evidence that the breeding distribution of Adélie penguins has expanded during the past decade; however, the size of emperor penguin colonies may have declined. Similarly, although several fur seal populations appear to be increasing, the numbers of southern elephant seals at Macquarie Island are declining. Climate change and warming conditions are also supporting the movement of non-native species into the region, where they may outcompete native species. Introduced plants, such as annual meadow grass (Poa annua), are thriving on Australia’s subantarctic islands.
Many subantarctic islands also carry the legacy of introduced vertebrates, such as rabbits or pigs that were released during the sealing years onto the islands as food sources. A notable step has been taken in the past few years to redress the damage cause by introduced species in the subantarctic through the successful eradication of rabbits, rats and mice on Macquarie Island.
