At a glance
During the past 50 years or so since the first clean air Acts were introduced in Australian jurisdictions, state and territory environment protection agencies (often working together with local government) have successfully employed regulatory and nonregulatory measures to greatly reduce threats to urban air quality from industrial, commercial and domestic activities. The risk of this situation changing markedly during the next decade is assessed as low, despite continuing growth of the economy. The lack of effective control measures for smoke pollution from domestic wood heaters needs to be addressed. Although stronger compliance with standards, improved in-service operation and behavioural changes offer some opportunity for cleaner air, the only long-term solution is the same as that for backyard burning, which was banned across urban areas about 30 years ago.
Motor vehicles are the main diffuse source of air pollution in urban areas, and the size of the Australian fleet is continuing to grow, as are the distances travelled. Despite this, projections to 2030 indicate a continued decline in vehicle emissions of most air pollutants. This positive outlook is strengthened by the Australian Government’s establishment in 2015 of the Ministerial Forum on Motor Vehicle Emissions to investigate ways to improve the energy productivity of transport, improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Considering these competing factors, the risk of a marked deterioration in urban air quality in the next decade is conservatively assessed as medium.
The higher temperatures associated with climate change are expected to elevate ambient levels of volatile organic compounds, increasing the potential for ozone pollution in Australia’s larger metropolitan centres, where peak ozone levels already exceed national air quality standards at times. Climate change is also expected to affect the likelihood of bushfires, which, depending on location, can cause very serious particulate pollution in population centres. The level of risk associated with these outcomes is assessed as medium.
Australian, state, territory and local governments have a range of mechanisms in place to control air pollution at its sources (see Effectiveness of management). In general, these mechanisms have significantly reduced the risk of air pollution events. However, it is worthwhile examining the risks associated with the most likely sources of air pollution in the future: industrial point sources, motor vehicles, domestic wood heaters, commercial and other domestic sources, and climate change. There are also pollutants where more research is required to expand our understanding of their impacts and possible management (see Box ATM16).
Current and emerging risks to Australia's Atmosphere
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Catastrophic
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Major
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Moderate
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Minor
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Insignificant
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Almost certain
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Premature deaths and respiratory illnesses associated with air pollution, noting that outdoor air pollution, including PM has been classified by WHO as carcinogenic to humans
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Likely
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- Adverse health effects including respiratory illnesses and loss of amenity due to shorter-term exposure to wood smoke from domestic woodheaters, hazard reduction burns and bushfires
- Localised impacts on health and amenity due to air pollution from industry
- Climate change increasing particulate pollution (associated with more frequent bushfires and dust storms) and formation of photochemical smog.
- Reduced lead emissions in Port Pirie following the smelter transformation project
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Possible
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- National Clean Air Agreement ineffectual, leading to steady or increasing exposure to pollutants
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- Further decreases in carbon monoxide pollution
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Unlikely
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- No increase in provision and use of public transport has the potential to significantly worsen urban air quality
- Abandonment of environmental controls on development
- Major economic recession
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Rare
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Not considered
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Not considered
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Not considered
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Not considered
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Not considered
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