At a glance

During the past 50 years or so since the first clean air Acts were introduced in Australian jurisdictions, state and territory environment protection agencies (often working together with local government) have successfully employed regulatory and nonregulatory measures to greatly reduce threats to urban air quality from industrial, commercial and domestic activities. The risk of this situation changing markedly during the next decade is assessed as low, despite continuing growth of the economy. The lack of effective control measures for smoke pollution from domestic wood heaters needs to be addressed. Although stronger compliance with standards, improved in-service operation and behavioural changes offer some opportunity for cleaner air, the only long-term solution is the same as that for backyard burning, which was banned across urban areas about 30 years ago.

Motor vehicles are the main diffuse source of air pollution in urban areas, and the size of the Australian fleet is continuing to grow, as are the distances travelled. Despite this, projections to 2030 indicate a continued decline in vehicle emissions of most air pollutants. This positive outlook is strengthened by the Australian Government’s establishment in 2015 of the Ministerial Forum on Motor Vehicle Emissions to investigate ways to improve the energy productivity of transport, improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Considering these competing factors, the risk of a marked deterioration in urban air quality in the next decade is conservatively assessed as medium.

The higher temperatures associated with climate change are expected to elevate ambient levels of volatile organic compounds, increasing the potential for ozone pollution in Australia’s larger metropolitan centres, where peak ozone levels already exceed national air quality standards at times. Climate change is also expected to affect the likelihood of bushfires, which, depending on location, can cause very serious particulate pollution in population centres. The level of risk associated with these outcomes is assessed as medium.

Australian, state, territory and local governments have a range of mechanisms in place to control air pollution at its sources (see Effectiveness of management). In general, these mechanisms have significantly reduced the risk of air pollution events. However, it is worthwhile examining the risks associated with the most likely sources of air pollution in the future: industrial point sources, motor vehicles, domestic wood heaters, commercial and other domestic sources, and climate change. There are also pollutants where more research is required to expand our understanding of their impacts and possible management (see Box ATM16).

Current and emerging risks to Australia's Atmosphere

 

Catastrophic

Major

Moderate

Minor

Insignificant
Almost certain

 

Premature deaths and respiratory illnesses associated with air pollution, noting that outdoor air pollution, including PM has been classified by WHO as carcinogenic to humans

 

 

 
Likely

 

 

 

  • Adverse health effects including respiratory illnesses and loss of amenity due to shorter-term exposure to wood smoke from domestic woodheaters, hazard reduction burns and bushfires
  • Localised impacts on health and amenity due to air pollution from industry
  • Climate change increasing particulate pollution (associated with more frequent bushfires and dust storms) and formation of photochemical smog.
  • Reduced lead emissions in Port Pirie following the smelter transformation project

 

 

 
Possible

 

 

 

  • National Clean Air Agreement ineffectual, leading to steady or increasing exposure to pollutants

 

 
  • Further decreases in carbon monoxide pollution
Unlikely

 

 

  • No increase in provision and use of public transport has the potential to significantly worsen urban air quality
  • Abandonment of environmental controls on development
  • Major economic recession

 

 

 

 
Rare

Not considered

Not considered

Not considered

Not considered

Not considered

Topics

Ambient air quality

Industrial point sources

If not effectively controlled, emissions from industry can place health and amenity at risk, not only at the neighbourhood level, but more generally at the airshed level.
2016
Relates to
Ambient air quality
Risks
Ambient air quality

Motor vehicles

Motor vehicles are a significant source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Australia, comprising some 90 per cent of transport CO2 emissions, which made up 17 per cent of Australia’s net CO2-equivalent emissions in 2015 (see ‘Sectora
2016
Relates to
Ambient air quality
Risks
Ambient air quality

Domestic wood heaters

Smoke from domestic wood heaters remains a significant source of air pollution in some urban areas, regional towns and lower-density settlements, often contributing up to 50 per cent of the PM2.5 pollution on winter days.
2016
Relates to
Ambient air quality
Risks
Ambient air quality

Commercial and other domestic sources

Commercial premises can pose a threat to health and amenity at the local level, mainly through emissions of particles and VOCs. VOC sources include aerosols, surface-coating operations and solvents (the latter being a particular cause of odour complaints).
2016
Relates to
Ambient air quality
Risks
Greater MelbourneGreater Sydney
Ambient air quality

Climate change

Climate change poses a threat to urban air quality and health through increases in particulate pollution (associated with more frequent bushfires and dust storms), and increases in the formation of ozone and other components of photochemical smog.
2016
Relates to
Ambient air quality
Risks
Keywood MD, Emmerson KM, Hibberd MF (2016). Ambient air quality: Risks. In: Australia state of the environment 2016, Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, Canberra, https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/ambient-air-quality/framework/risks, DOI 10.4226/94/58b65c70bc372