The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics has developed projections for metropolitan cities. These indicate continuing reductions in carbon monoxide, VOCs (evaporative and exhaust emissions), PM10 (exhaust emissions) and NOx until 2030, because of the increasing proportion of newer vehicles that meet the latest ADR requirements for engine and emissions controls, and improved fuel standards. However, the projections are based on a ‘business as usual’ case—that is, continued economic and population growth, no domestic carbon price in place, no further emissions standards (after 2007–08 for diesel vehicles and 2008–10 for light-duty petrol vehicles), and only mid-range increases in petrol prices (based on International Energy Agency reference case projections). They do not factor in further reductions because of changing standards. For example, European emissions standards define acceptable limits for exhaust emissions of new vehicles sold in the European Union. The standards have been rolled out in stages since 1993; the stages are referred to as Euro 1 to Euro 6.
Since 1 November 2013, the tighter Euro 5 emissions standards for light vehicles applied to all new-model vehicles sold in Australia, with existing models to comply from 1 November 2016. Table ATM10 summarises the emissions limits for the Euro 4, 5 and 6 standards for light vehicles.
Table ATM10 Emissions standards for Euro 4, 5 and 6 light vehicles
Standard
|
Introduced in Europe
|
Mandated in Australia for all new light vehicles
|
Emission limits (g/km) for petrol/diesel engines
HCs NOx PM
|
Euro 4
|
2005
|
1 July 2010
|
0.10/0.30
|
0.08/0.25
|
na/0.025
|
Euro 5
|
2011
|
1 November 2016
|
0.10/0.23
|
0.06/0.18
|
0.0045/0.0045
|
Euro 6
|
2014
|
To be determined
|
0.10/0.17
|
0.06/0.08
|
0.0045/0.0045
|
g/km = grams per kilometre; HCs = hydrocarbons; na = not applicable; NOX = nitrogen oxides; PM = particulate matter
Note: Euro 6 was slated for introduction in 2018, but has been postponed for consideration by the Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions.
These improvements, together with those associated with the earlier introduction of the Euro 3 and Euro 4 standards, should continue to counter the effect of further growth in vehicle numbers and distances travelled. However, although the general outlook is therefore encouraging, it needs to be acknowledged that local vehicle pollution ‘hotspots’ continue to exist in our major cities. These are usually associated with road tunnels and very heavily trafficked roads, often carrying a significant proportion of heavy commercial vehicles through residential areas. A growing body of evidence shows that residents living on or near such roads experience not only loss of amenity, but also a range of adverse health effects.
Diesel-fuelled registered vehicles are an increasing fraction of all registered vehicles (up from 1.0 million in 1999 to 3.6 million, or 19.7 per cent, at 31 January 2015). These figures represent an increase of 10 per cent per year during the previous 5 years. The progressive tightening of diesel fuel standards is expected to contribute to a reduction in particle and NOx levels over time by enabling the use of catalytic particle filters and NOx adsorbers.
In 2015, it was found that the Volkswagen Group had installed software in 11 million diesel engines to circumvent emissions tests, leading to NO2 emission rates 10–20 times greater than legally permitted in Europe and the United States. Oldenkamp et al. (2016) has estimated the public health consequences of these additional emissions, and calculated the value of life lost to be at least US$39 billion. The impact in Australia is not known, but the reported on-road emissions from these vehicles would have met the Euro 4 standard required for new vehicles in Australia until the end of 2013.
The average age of the total vehicle fleet has been steady at between 9.9 and 10.1 years in the 10 years to 2016. Campervans have the highest average age at 17.4 years (down from 17.8 in 2011), followed by heavy rigid trucks at 15.7 years (15.5 in 2011), whereas passenger vehicles have the lowest average age at 9.8 years (steady since 2011).
Australian emissions and fuel quality standards have generally lagged behind equivalent overseas standards, but they have been progressively tightened to require more sophisticated vehicle engine and emissions control systems, and improved fuel quality. Recent improvements in fuel quality have focused on greatly reducing sulfur content (particularly important in diesel engines, where high sulfur levels prevent the use of catalytic particle filters and NOx adsorbers) and lowering the volatility of fuels to reduce evaporative losses (a major source of VOCs). The national standard for the sulfur content of diesel fuel has been reduced dramatically from 500 ppm in 2002 to a maximum of 10 ppm since 2009, which meets international best practice. For petrol, the maximum sulfur limit has been 50 ppm for premium unleaded petrol since 2008, and 150 ppm for ‘regular’ unleaded petrol. The issues associated with reducing the limit in petrol to 10 ppm in line with the current European sulfur limit were canvassed in a 2013 review (Orbital Australia 2013). The Fuel Quality Standards Act 2000 was reviewed in 2005, and a second extensive review released its final report in April 2016. This review underlined the effectiveness of fuel standards in meeting health, environmental and engine operability objectives.
The Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions was established in October 2015 to bring together the Australian Government infrastructure, environment and energy portfolios to explore options to reduce the environmental and health impacts of vehicle emissions. The forum will coordinate action on a group of issues: implementation of Euro 6 standards, fuel quality standards, fuel efficiency of vehicles and emissions testing.