Understanding and research

2016
Climate
Effectiveness of management
Tasmania
Greater Melbourne

In the 5 years since SoE 2011, international climate science has advanced significantly. The IPCC, operating under the United Nations, is the leading international scientific body for the assessment of climate change. Its role is to review, assess and synthesise the latest information on climate change, based on the most recent peer-reviewed literature. AR5, which cited more than 9200 scientific publications and contained contributions from more than 600 authors (Stocker et al. 2013b), confirms (with between 95 and 100 per cent certainty) that humans have been the dominant cause of warming since the 1950s.

Although it is clear that the climate is warming, the complexity of the climate system means that there are still scientific uncertainties about how much the climate will change in the future. In particular, uncertainty exists about:

  • future emissions and levels of GHGs, which will be influenced by policies, and population and technology changes
  • the precise temperature response to future GHG concentrations, because climate model projections under different GHG emissions scenarios can only estimate temperature increases within a probability range
  • how land and ocean carbon sinks will operate in a warmer climate.

With the long-term global investment in climate science (e.g. the large number of climate observation programs and studies), the increased sophistication of Earth system models and increased understanding of some climate processes, the scientific understanding of climate change impacts has increased substantially since 1990. However, to reduce uncertainty further, this investment must continue, because high-quality information about climate change is a core requirement for good adaptation and mitigation policy (Garnaut 2008).

The National Framework for Climate Change Science (established in 2009) outlined the climate science challenges to be addressed in supporting Australia’s climate change policy, as well as the capabilities required to deliver this science. The plan for implementation of the framework was established in 2012 and set out a series of key policy questions that, when answered, would deliver national benefit. The plan coordinated the science delivered through the Australian Climate Change Science Program, to which the Australian Government committed $15 million per year between 2011 and 2015. A major achievement of the program has been the development of ACCESS (see Box ATM4). In 2015, the 26-year program was replaced with the National Environmental Science Programme’s Earth System and Climate Change Hub ($23.9 million across 5 years).

Box ATM4 Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) was developed jointly by the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and Australian universities to provide a national capability to model the Earth climate system on timescales from hours to centuries. Development of ACCESS also involved significant international collaboration, particularly with the United Kingdom Met Office.

ACCESS is a global model that includes all elements of the climate system affecting Australia’s weather. It links models of the oceans, atmosphere, sea ice, land surface, global carbon cycle and chemistry, and aerosols to simulate changes in Earth’s climate systems. These models are important in understanding past, present and future weather and climate.

ACCESS has improved weather forecasts so that 3-day forecasts are now as accurate as 2-day forecasts were before 2009. This makes for greater certainty in planning and responding to weather events. ACCESS simulations now provide unprecedented detail about fire-weather danger and real-time conditions to support planning and deployment of fire crews and emergency management.

ACCESS simulations rank in the upper level of international climate model simulations and are particularly skillful over Australia, based on simulations of historical climate (Figure ATM24). ACCESS provided Australia’s major input to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This included simulations of the climate of the 20th century, and projections for the 21st century for a range of future greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. ACCESS will also provide Australia’s major input to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC on the world’s climate future.

Development and refinement of ACCESS continue, so that it will meet the climate and weather information needs of government, industry and the community.

SoE2016_atm_fig24_GlobalSrfceTempChanges.png
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Figure ATM24 Global surface air temperature changes, 2071–2100, relative to 1981–2010, using a low-emissions to moderate-emissions scenario

Understanding and research

For the past decade, CSIRO has worked with other groups in the Australian research community, including the Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, to develop substantial capabilities and expertise in climate modelling and observations. This has allowed CSIRO to contribute to the global understanding of climatic trends and processes (e.g. see Box ATM5).

In February 2016, CSIRO announced an intention to reduce resourcing in this area. As a consequence of negative national and international reaction to this announcement, the Australian Government and CSIRO subsequently announced the formation of a new climate science centre to be housed within CSIRO that will have a guaranteed base level of support for 10 years.

The Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science was established in 2011. It is a consortium of 5 Australian universities, and a suite of national and international partners. It will build on and improve existing understanding of the modelling of regional climates to enable enhanced adaptation to, and management of, climate change, particularly in the Australian region. It has strong links with the ACCESS initiative and works in partnership with the National Computational Infrastructure facility.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), hosted by Griffith University, Queensland, was established in 2008. Its mandate is to carry out research to support decision-makers as they prepare for, and manage the risks of, climate change. During phase 1, the Australian Government committed a further $9 million for 3 years (2014–17) to phase 2 of NCCARF to address the needs of local government adaptation decision-makers and practitioners in the coastal zone. These groups deal with projected impacts such as more frequent and more intense heatwaves, increasing risk of flooding from rivers and the sea, and increasing coastal erosion.

Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V & Midgley PM (eds) (2013b). Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, & New York, United States.

Garnaut R (2008). The Garnaut Climate Change Review: final report, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne.

World Data Centre (WDC) for Greenhouse Gases (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg), WDC for Aerosols (www.gaw-wdcrg.org)

Box ATM5 Cape Grim: monitoring the health of the global atmosphere for 40 years

The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (Cape Grim BAPS), established in 1976 to monitor and study global atmospheric composition for trends as a result of human activities and natural variability, celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2016. The station is managed by the Bureau of Meteorology, which partners with CSIRO to manage the science program, in collaboration with the University of Wollongong and the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation. Cape Grim BAPS is one of 3 premier stations of the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch Program. Located on the north-west tip of Tasmania, Cape Grim BAPS is able to measure ‘true background’ air—air that is uncontaminated by point sources—when the wind blows in to the south-west sector from across the Southern Ocean.

At Cape Grim, measurements (Figure ATM25) are made of all significant greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, aerosols including black carbon, reactive gases including tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, radon (an indicator of recent terrestrial influences), solar radiation, rainfall chemical composition, mercury, and persistent organic pollutants (POPs); and meteorological variables such as wind speed and direction, rainfall, temperature, humidity and air pressure. The Cape Grim Air Archive, initiated by CSIRO in 1978 and carried on by Cape Grim BAPS, is now the world’s most important and unique collection of background atmospheric air samples, underpinning many research papers on global and Australian emissions of greenhouse and ozone depleting gases.

Cape Grim data are freely available from major global data archives.1 They have been widely cited in all 5 international assessments of climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1990–2013), in all 10 international assessments of ozone depletion from the United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization (1985–2014), in all 4 State of the Climate reports (2010, 2012, 2014, 2015), and in tropospheric ozone assessments.

Cape Grim data are also used by the Australian Government to meet international obligations. For example, Cape Grim greenhouse gas data have been used to provide independent verification of components of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, which reports Australia’s annual emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Cape Grim POPs data have been reported to the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants; and Cape Grim mercury data have been reported to the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Cape Grim BAPS data have also been used in hundreds of research papers on climate change and atmospheric pollution. Through its work with universities, Cape Grim BAPS is a training ground for the next generation of climate scientists.

Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, situated 90 metres above sea level

Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, situated 90 metres above sea level

Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, situated 90 metres above sea level

Photo by CSIRO CC BY 3.0

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Source: CSIRO

Note: Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have shown a 22 per cent increase since 1976. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) concentrations have shown a 33 per cent increase. CO2-e is a term for describing different greenhouse gases using a common unit. For any quantity and type of greenhouse gas, CO2-e signifies the amount of CO2 that would have the equivalent global warming impact. CO2-e, as presented here, has been calculated using all the significant long-lived greenhouse gases. Surface ozone concentrations show a clear seasonal cycle, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer, and an average increase of approximately 0.24 per cent per year since 1982. Particle number concentration shows a clear seasonal cycle of maximum concentrations during summer and minimum concentrations during winter. The aerosol optical depth timeseries show the impact of the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, as a result of stratospheric transport from the Northern Hemisphere.

Figure ATM25 Timeseries of monthly mean concentrations of (a) carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide equivalent, and (b) tropospheric ozone; (c) monthly median particle number concentration; and (d) monthly median aerosol optical depth at 868 nanometres at Cape Grim under baseline wind conditions

Understanding and research
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Keywood MD, Emmerson KM, Hibberd MF (2016). Climate: Understanding and research. In: Australia state of the environment 2016, Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, Canberra, https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/climate/topic/2016/understanding-and-research, DOI 10.4226/94/58b65c70bc372